Holy Roman Empire

Chapter 396: A Huge Conspiracy

The internal disputes within the Kingdom of Prussia were of no concern to anyone. Most European countries were celebrating this news, illustrating how unpopular the Russian Bear was.

Austria was no exception. If it weren’t for the potential fallout, Franz was even prepared to host a banquet to celebrate this great victory.

Up to this point in the Russo-Prussian War, the total Russian military casualties had exceeded half a million. The specific numbers of those killed, captured, or retired due to injuries were unclear.

The Russian government hadn’t figured out these issues, and Franz naturally wouldn’t be bored enough to help the Russians count.

The victorious Prussian-Polish coalition was also in a difficult position. While the Kingdom of Prussia was in bad shape, having suffered heavy losses, they still had some strength left and a buffer which was winter. They should be able to replenish their forces by next year.

Of course, this replenishment referred only to military strength. Their war potential had inevitably decreased, even with the manpower they gained from the two duchies.

The situation was different for the Poles. Even with support from various European countries, their fundamental nature as a disorganized mob couldn’t be changed.

To win over more people, the provisional government announced the abolition of serfdom and the free distribution of land to the public.

However, saying something was one thing while doing it was another. The provisional government was disorganized, and the revolutionaries lacked any governing experience, leading to awkward and frequent blunders in their actions.

First, they drove the nobles to opposition. The subsequent internal struggles then caused dissatisfaction among the middle class.

Without seeing tangible benefits and relying solely on slogans, the facade eventually fell apart. As time passed, the ordinary people gradually lost their enthusiasm for revolution.

If not for the victory at the Battle of East Prussia, it would have been a question whether the Polish provisional government could have lasted through this winter.

The merit of a policy does not lie in the policy itself but in its actual implementation. Clearly, the Polish provisional government was unaware of this, naively believing that once the government issued an order, it would be implemented below.

The free distribution of land was indeed announced, but how it was distributed was left to the discretion of bureaucrats — or rather, It would be more accurate to describe them as opportunists rather than bureaucrats.

Filled with idealism, the provisional government disregarded reality and blindly introduced a series of policies it considered good. The outcome was naturally predictable, causing domestic chaos.

For Austria, this was advantageous. A chaotic Poland would deter the Polish population within the country, further aiding in the advancement of ethnic integration.

Strategically, Austria successfully utilized the Prussian-Polish coalition to weaken the Russians without allowing Prussia and Poland to capitalize on the situation, achieving the first step of its strategic plan.

Whether to continue weakening the Russian Empire has become the most pressing issue for Franz.

On one hand, there’s a desire to weaken this potential adversary, while on the other, there’s a wish for the Russians to maintain a certain level of strength to counterbalance the British in Central Asia.

While the Russo-Prussian War was ongoing, the Russian government didn’t forget its actions against the three Khanates in Central Asia. However, due to financial constraints that couldn’t support a two-front war, Russian military operations in the region were lackluster.

Within the Austrian government, disagreements persisted. Russia isn’t lacking in strength. Their major issue is their inability to fully utilize their capabilities.

In theory, if the Russian government could harness even half of its war potential, it could easily deal with the Kingdom of Prussia.

The level of support Austria provided to Russia during the Russo-Prussian War was far less compared to the Near East War. This was one of the factors preventing Russia from fully deploying its capabilities.

This was determined by interests. During the Near East War, Austria had significant interests at stake. Even if the lent money might not be recovered, losses were being compensated for in other ways.

The Russo-Prussian War was different. Austria found it challenging to gain substantial benefits. Discussing the partition of the Kingdom of Prussia was one thing, but if carried out, the costs would outweigh the gains.

For Franz to obtain the human resources in Northern Germany, he needed to win over the local population. If he were to ally with the Russians to partition the Kingdom of Prussia, he would never gain the local population’s recognition.

Nationalism is a double-edged sword. Franz used nationalism to establish the new Holy Roman Empire and acquired abundant human resources in Germany. Naturally, he also had to bear the troubles it brought.

Minister of Finance Karl proposed, “Your Majesty, considering the progress of the Russo-Prussian War, we have achieved our objectives and can consider mediating this war.

The finances of the Russian government have collapsed. Up to now, they owe us 30 million guilders for goods, along with a staggering 65 million guilders in loans and 18 million guilders in private bonds.

If the war continues, I don’t believe the Russians have the capability to repay us. Given their previous debts, there’s a chance they may not even be able to repay the interest someday.

Even if the Russians were to win the war and we were to partition the Kingdom of Prussia together, the gains for us would be very limited.”

This is a fact. Currently, Russia owes Austria a total debt of 237 million guilders, with monthly payments for principal and interest amounting to 2.154 million guilders.

At first glance, it doesn’t seem like much, and the Russian government should be able to bear this with their annual revenue. However, the Russians have debts to other European countries as well.

Currently, Russia’s debt repayments already account for one-third of its annual income. If the Russo-Prussian War continues, the bankruptcy of the Russian government is an inevitable outcome.

The Ministry of Finance has mentally prepared for the Russians to default on their debt, and Franz has similarly prepared for this eventuality.

Even though the funds were initially raised by Austria for the war effort, now that they had acquired them, they could not frivolously waste the money but needed to allocate it valuable.

Without a doubt, this value won’t come from partitioning Prussia but must be compensated in other areas.

From Franz’s perspective, they have already recouped their investment. At the same time, weakening both Prussia and Russia led the two to become mortal enemies, greatly reducing Austria’s defense pressure in Eastern and Central Europe.

However, following the principle of maximizing benefits, efforts must be made to gain more advantages. How to proceed will test the diplomatic skills of Franz and his team.

Foreign Minister Wessenberg objected, “It’s too early to stop the war now, and there’s no guarantee both sides will accept our goodwill.

With financial support from Britain and France, the Kingdom of Prussia still has the strength for a war. The Junker-dominated Prussian government will surely not agree to stop the war. They still want to tear off a piece of flesh from the Russians to establish their status as a great power.

Russia still possesses considerable strength, and the Russian government won’t capitulate easily. They’ve only recently established their hegemony on the continent after the Napoleonic Wars. Surely they won’t give it up without a fight.

Both sides still have the capability to continue the war. Mediating now would please neither party.

With winter as a buffer, the Russian government will likely find ways to raise the necessary funds. If they fail to raise sufficient funds, we can see what conditions they offer and negotiate accordingly.

The primary benefit the victory in the Battle of East Prussia brought to Prussia was political, making it possible to entice Sweden into the conflict.

The enmity between Russia and Sweden goes back centuries. Over the past three hundred years, they’ve engaged in eight major wars until Sweden’s decline in recent decades brought a halt to it.

In addition, the Ottoman Empire might mobilize to reclaim the Caucasus. They’ve just completed a social reform, which, though not thorough, has partially restored their strength.

The Three Khanates in Central Asia, recently oppressed by the Russians, along with Persia, which has had recent conflicts with Russia, and the Qing Empire in the Far East, could all become potential enemies of Russia.

According to our intelligence, British diplomats have been very active recently, indicating they might be coordinating alliances.

It’s conceivable the coming year won’t be easy for the Russian government. If they win the Russo-Prussian War, these nations will retreat; but if they continue to falter, they’ll be in peril.”

Looking at the map of Eurasia, Franz had to admit that the Russians had an impressive ability to attract hatred and make enemies. If John Bull’s plan succeeded, then the hard-pressed Russian Empire might indeed not be able to hold on.

The “Russo-Austrian Alliance” was built on the premise of two countries with comparable strengths. If the Russian Empire were to fall, Austria might be the first to kick them while they were down.

Franz asked with concern, “Do the Russians have any inkling of the British plan?”

Deep down, he had already considered the Russian example as a lesson, reminding himself repeatedly not to be careless.

Foreign Minister Wessenberg replied, “It is not yet certain. The Russians haven’t taken any action, so we can’t determine whether they have seen through the British conspiracy.”

The British plan was discovered by the Austrian Foreign Ministry not for any other reason but because they regarded the British as their main adversary.

Since they considered the British as their greatest adversary, every move and action of the British was closely monitored by the Austrian Foreign Ministry across various international agencies.

Prime Minister Felix suggested, “If the British have such a grand plan, we ought to alert the Russians. The Russian Empire must not fall. If it does, we’ll have to dismantle them. Currently, we can’t achieve the dismantling of the Russian Empire, so it’s better not to let them fall.”

Dismantling the Russian Empire was not a problem, the key was that there was no way to fragment them. Merely tearing off a few pieces from the periphery was not Austria’s objective.

Especially at this critical juncture in their African strategy, if the Russian Empire now had problems, Austria would get mired in this quagmire and be unable to extricate itself in the short term.

Franz thought for a moment and said, “Then we’ll find an opportunity to notify the Russians. But not now, wait until the British plan has progressed somewhat close to completion before acting.

Involving so many countries to challenge the Russians simultaneously is definitely not a simple matter. The British are probably overly optimistic.”

Hatred is widespread, and so are interests. These factors constitute the prerequisites for countries seeking revenge against Russia. Unfortunately, governments of various countries are not so proactive.

Due to communication challenges, these countries cannot engage in sufficient dialogue. With everyone scattered across the globe, so-called joint actions remain wishful thinking and can easily be dealt with by the Russians one by one.

Moreover, the governments of many of those countries had become rotten, completely lacking the courage to recover lost territory. To make them determined would require the British to take the field themselves.

Since that was the case, Franz naturally was not in a rush. He would wait until the British had made sufficient preparations before notifying the Russians, while also adding a bit of difficulty for Alexander II.

If the issue is resolved by the Russian government through diplomatic means, wouldn’t that be quite embarrassing for the British?